Grain prices managed to rally modestly this past week, despite generally bearish reports released Friday by USDA. Friday’s Grain Stocks and Supply and Demand reports showed increased supplies of corn stocks compared to a month ago, although the increase was smaller than the average of pre-report estimates by about 10 million bushels. World Grain Stocks were also part of the report released Monday, with USDA indicating an increase of 2.5 million metric tonnes of corn from Brazil. Planting progress reports released by USDA on Monday showed farmers had 3% of the corn crop in the ground, compared to the five-year average of 4%. Midwestern farmers have done an amazing job of taking waterlogged soils and turning them into fields ready for planting. Good weather forecasts for this week will likely find farmers at least keeping pace with the average of the past five years, which could pressure prices. For the week ended Tuesday, May Corn futures were up six cents, with the July contract up more than a nickel and new-crop December up more than four cents.
Soybean values were also higher this week, as the May futures contract gained more than 23 cents while the July was up 22 and new-crop November gained more than 13 cents. The rally happened just a few days after USDA said it was leaving soybean ending stocks unchanged at 190 million bushels, while pre-report estimates had analysts looking for an increase. Expected production of South American soybeans was also raised by 1.5 million tones. On the downside, an early start to corn planting may give farmers plenty of opportunities to get soybeans planted in a timely manner.
Wheat prices worked higher this week as well, responding to a weaker dollar which may encourage exports. The condition of the winter wheat crop is also better than last year by a bunch, with 65% of the growing crop rated either Good or Excellent. Still, May Wheat futures in Chicago managed to add almost 13 cents this past week, with new-crop July up almost 12 cents. In Kansas City, the May contract picked up more than 11 cents, while the rest of the 2010 wheat contracts also added about 11 cents.
Livestock prices seemed to drift this week, with a lower tone noted on Monday and Tuesday after rallies late last week. April Live Cattle futures were showing a gain of $1.07 compared to last Tuesday, while the June and August contracts lost a dime. The cash fed cattle market was stronger last week, with the bulk of the trade near $100, and there was already cash trading this week at the same price as some feeders with hedges took advantage of the incredibly strong basis. Boxed beef cutout values were up almost two bucks in both the Choice and Select.
Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, with the front month contracts up, while the fall contracts were lower. Cash auction markets were also mixed in early week trade, as the weakness in Live and Feeder futures on Monday and Tuesday injected some caution into the buying equation.
April Lean Hog futures were up just seven cents for the week ended Tuesday, but the May contract gained $2.20 and June was up $1.17. Concerns over adequate supplies of market-weight hogs may have supported futures prices, but cash butchers were near unchanged, as Sioux Falls traded Tuesday at $52.50 and Red Oak was at $52.
Spring planting weather and weekly Crop Progress reports will likely dominate the thinking of grain traders over the next couple of months. Of course, the general economy, energy markets and the dollar exchange rate will continue to influence both the grain and livestock markets as well in the coming months.
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Grain prices managed to rally modestly this past week, despite generally bearish reports released Friday by USDA. Friday’s Grain Stocks and Supply and Demand reports showed increased supplies of corn stocks compared to a month ago, although the increase was smaller than the average of pre-report estimates by about 10 million bushels. World Grain Stocks were also part of the report released Monday, with USDA indicating an increase of 2.5 million metric tonnes of corn from Brazil. Planting progress reports released by USDA on Monday showed farmers had 3% of the corn crop in the ground, compared to the five-year average of 4%. Midwestern farmers have done an amazing job of taking waterlogged soils and turning them into fields ready for planting. Good weather forecasts for this week will likely find farmers at least keeping pace with the average of the past five years, which could pressure prices. For the week ended Tuesday, May Corn futures were up six cents, with the July contract up more than a nickel and new-crop December up more than four cents.
Soybean values were also higher this week, as the May futures contract gained more than 23 cents while the July was up 22 and new-crop November gained more than 13 cents. The rally happened just a few days after USDA said it was leaving soybean ending stocks unchanged at 190 million bushels, while pre-report estimates had analysts looking for an increase. Expected production of South American soybeans was also raised by 1.5 million tones. On the downside, an early start to corn planting may give farmers plenty of opportunities to get soybeans planted in a timely manner.
Wheat prices worked higher this week as well, responding to a weaker dollar which may encourage exports. The condition of the winter wheat crop is also better than last year by a bunch, with 65% of the growing crop rated either Good or Excellent. Still, May Wheat futures in Chicago managed to add almost 13 cents this past week, with new-crop July up almost 12 cents. In Kansas City, the May contract picked up more than 11 cents, while the rest of the 2010 wheat contracts also added about 11 cents.
Livestock prices seemed to drift this week, with a lower tone noted on Monday and Tuesday after rallies late last week. April Live Cattle futures were showing a gain of $1.07 compared to last Tuesday, while the June and August contracts lost a dime. The cash fed cattle market was stronger last week, with the bulk of the trade near $100, and there was already cash trading this week at the same price as some feeders with hedges took advantage of the incredibly strong basis. Boxed beef cutout values were up almost two bucks in both the Choice and Select.
Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, with the front month contracts up, while the fall contracts were lower. Cash auction markets were also mixed in early week trade, as the weakness in Live and Feeder futures on Monday and Tuesday injected some caution into the buying equation.
April Lean Hog futures were up just seven cents for the week ended Tuesday, but the May contract gained $2.20 and June was up $1.17. Concerns over adequate supplies of market-weight hogs may have supported futures prices, but cash butchers were near unchanged, as Sioux Falls traded Tuesday at $52.50 and Red Oak was at $52.
Spring planting weather and weekly Crop Progress reports will likely dominate the thinking of grain traders over the next couple of months. Of course, the general economy, energy markets and the dollar exchange rate will continue to influence both the grain and livestock markets as well in the coming months.
