Slow economic recovery elicits cautious optimism

By Candace Krebs
Posted Mar 01, 2010 @ 04:47 PM
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According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the gradual economic recovery is strengthening the 2010 outlook for U.S. agriculture.
USDA’s Economic Research Service projected last week that net farm income for U.S. producers will climb 12 percent this year, though it will still fall below the net farm income earned on average during the previous ten years. ERS said it expected farm expenses to remain roughly the same, with costs for fertilizer and feed lower. Meanwhile, cash receipts from farm commodities were projected about 2 percent higher, and government payments were expected to remain largely unchanged.
The largest decline in 2010 crop receipts is expected to hit wheat producers.
By contrast, federal economists heralded strengthening export sales of beef and pork, a factor leading to a projection of improved economic conditions for livestock producers.
Everyone could use a jolt of optimism.
But Vincent Amanor-Boadu, director of the Kansas Ag Innovation Center and assistant ag economics professor at K-State, says any economic recovery is likely to be slow.
“People are being extremely cautious. The economic recovery will be like watching paint dry,” he said during Salina’s K-State Ag Profitability Conference.
Amanor-Boadu used graphs to show how the business contribution to the Gross Domestic Product has shrunk in recent years. Government and consumption have been making up the bulk of the economy. Now consumption is declining, as the national savings rate jumps from one-half of one percent to 5 ½ percent, he said.
He advised caution as a sound strategy.
“We have to think about how to insulate ourselves from what happens in the marketplace,” he said.
 

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the gradual economic recovery is strengthening the 2010 outlook for U.S. agriculture.
USDA’s Economic Research Service projected last week that net farm income for U.S. producers will climb 12 percent this year, though it will still fall below the net farm income earned on average during the previous ten years. ERS said it expected farm expenses to remain roughly the same, with costs for fertilizer and feed lower. Meanwhile, cash receipts from farm commodities were projected about 2 percent higher, and government payments were expected to remain largely unchanged.
The largest decline in 2010 crop receipts is expected to hit wheat producers.
By contrast, federal economists heralded strengthening export sales of beef and pork, a factor leading to a projection of improved economic conditions for livestock producers.
Everyone could use a jolt of optimism.
But Vincent Amanor-Boadu, director of the Kansas Ag Innovation Center and assistant ag economics professor at K-State, says any economic recovery is likely to be slow.
“People are being extremely cautious. The economic recovery will be like watching paint dry,” he said during Salina’s K-State Ag Profitability Conference.
Amanor-Boadu used graphs to show how the business contribution to the Gross Domestic Product has shrunk in recent years. Government and consumption have been making up the bulk of the economy. Now consumption is declining, as the national savings rate jumps from one-half of one percent to 5 ½ percent, he said.
He advised caution as a sound strategy.
“We have to think about how to insulate ourselves from what happens in the marketplace,” he said.
 

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