Good morning! Here's what you need to know:
Here Comes The Jobs Report. This jam-packed week of economic data ends with a whopper: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report. Economists estimate that U.S. companies added 215,000 payrolls in June with the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3%.
But The Number Could Actually Be Huge. Earlier this week, ADP said that U.S. companies added 281,000 private payrolls in June, crushing expectations for 205,000. This has some economists thinking that we could get a big surprise today. "The overall tone of [the ADP] report was unambiguously positive and it suggests that the US labor market may again be firing on all cylinders, and on an accounting basis points to payrolls growth closer to 300K," said TD Securities Millan Mulraine, who also noted that ADP tends to miss the BLS report by a wide margin. Here's Societe Generale's Brian Jones, who's forecasting 290,000: "A variety of factors support our call for the largest payroll gain since the 360,000 leap recorded at the beginning of 2012. The average number of persons filing initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits contracted by 12,100 to 312,000 over the four weeks heading into the June establishment survey period. The total number of persons collecting unemployment insurance benefits under regular state programs likely contracted by 54,000 to 2.57 million between canvassing periods – the fewest since October 2007 – implying that a substantial number of those previously unemployed are finding work. The impressive breadth of hiring across private industries over the March-May span also points to a pick-up in headline payroll growth."
Keep An Eye On Wages. Included, in the BLS report will be wage growth data. Economists estimate average hourly earnings climbed by 0.2% month-over-month and 1.9% year-over-year. "Wage rates should be as important now as the jobless rate," said UBS's Kevin Cummins. "Although the latter lends insight into the size of the output gap, the former sheds light on whether labor or capital is claiming the upper hand in the perennial struggle for national income. Both are critical to policy-makers watching for signs of rising inflation risks."
Markets Are Up. U.S. stock market futures are in the green with Dow futures up 16 points, S&P futures up 1.8 points, and Nasdaq futures is up 5 points. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is up 0.4%, France's CAC 40 is up 0.4%, Germany's DAX is up 0.5%, and Spain's 0.2%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.1%. U.S. markets close at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Sweden's Central Bank Cuts. Sweden's Riksbank cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5%, which was more than expected by economists. The Swedish krona fell and European stocks rose after the announcement.
Eurozone Sales Are Going Nowhere. Retail sales saw 0.0% growth in May, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain. To make things worse, the April 0.4% growth rate was revised down to -0.2%. "In one line: Slightly disappointing, but we remain optimistic that current momentum can be sustained," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen noting the 0.7% year-over-year growth. "Consumption growth is still decent in the eurozone, but not as impressive as we would have hoped given the strong trend in consumer confidence."
Overall, Europe Is Slowing. Markit's Eurozone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to a six-month low of 52.8 in June from 53.5 in May. "At first glance, June’s PMI survey results make grim reading and raise worries that the euro area’s recovery is already fading," said Markit's Chris Williamson. "Dig a little deeper, however, and there are grounds for optimism. We should not lose sight of the fact that, even with the slowdown, the June data round off the best quarter for three years. We should expect economic growth to strengthen from the 0.2% rise seen in the first quarter to perhaps 0.4% in the second quarter."
Pay Attention To Draghi. The European Central Bank meets today to discuss and decide on the path of monetary policy. Economists expect the ECB to hold the main refinancing rate at 0.15%, the marginal lending facility rate at 0.40% and the deposit facility rate at -0.1%. However, ECB-watchers will be listening for any more information regarding the bank's plan for targeted ong-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO), the subsidized loans in targeted areas, which are intended to boost lending to the non-financial private sector.
Don't Forget About The Trade Report. Economists estimate that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $45.0 billion in May from $47.2 billion in April. "While June employment will no doubt overshadow this morning’s international trade and nonmanufacturing ISM releases, it is worth highlighting the former," wrote Deutsche Bank economists. "Recall that the -2.9% annualized drop in Q1 real GDP was primarily due to a plunge in net exports, which subtracted 150 bps from overall output and a slower pace of inventory accumulation, which lopped another 170 bps off of growth."
It's Worth Watching ISM Services. The ISM non-manufacturing report will be published at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists estimate this index will be unchanged at 56.3. "The ISM non-manufacturing index probably remained elevated in June, consistent with our economic forecast for a sharp bounce back in growth in the second quarter," said Citi's Peter D'Antonio. "The regional and national purchasing managers’ surveys have been running at a feverish pace, offering support for this view."
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